IN THIS ISSUE

🏅 Hermetica Social Bounties
🔶 Stacks Townhall
🎥 Hermetica Hangout #8: BOB
💰 USDh yield recap
📈 Weekly market review

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Hermetica Social Bounties

Take advantage of the opportunity to grow your USDh and STX holdings with Hermetica x ZeroAuthority DAO bounties.

Participating is easy:

Don’t miss your chance — submissions are due by September 2!

Stacks Townhall

The Nakamoto Edition of the Stacks Townhall is just days away on August 28.

This is a townhall you won’t want to miss — the schedule is packed with product updates and key Bitcoin DeFi builders, including our Founder and CEO, Jakob Schillinger.

Make sure you’re up to date; set a reminder now!

Hermetica Hangout #8: BOB

Hermetica Hangout #8 with Dave is approaching!

Next Tuesday, BOB (Build on Bitcoin) will join us on the show to talk about building. Here is a sneak peek of what to expect:

Mark your calendar for August 27, at 6PM EDT! Follow the Hermetica X account and turn on notifications for all updates.

On Monday we'll post the official reminder on X, so keep your eyes peeled.

USDh Yield Recap

We're #34 is coming to a close. This week, sUSDh holders earned 6% APY.

Stake USDh today to earn points plus up to 25% APY.

Market Review

Bitcoin's price action has been subdued this week, following a liquidation event two weeks ago. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $61,000.

Bitcoin’s price is currently in a downtrend. The price is below several key moving averages (MAs), including the 6-month MA at $64,579, the 5-week MA at $61,949, and the 1-month MA at $61,136.

The convergence of these moving averages around the $63,000 level presents a significant barrier to upward movement. Over the past two weeks, the relatively flat price action has allowed the 4 and 5-week MAs to nearly catch up with the current price, approaching a potential crossover from above. This crossover could signal a break in the downtrend and increase the likelihood of a rally towards the $65,000 mark.

The price remains above the 1-year and 200-week MAs, currently sitting at $50,963 and $38,266, respectively. The 1-year MA served as a support level during the last liquidation event, and many traders are likely to buy at this level again if the price retraces.

Should the price continue to rise, potential resistance levels are estimated at $63,000, $64,000, $68,000, $70,000, $72,000, and $74,000. However, if momentum fails to recover, support levels are projected at $60,000, $58,000, $55,000, and $49,000.

In other news, Justin Sun of the Tron network is acquiring BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC) business, the largest wrapped Bitcoin product in DeFi. As a result, protocols on Ethereum, such as MakerDao, are planning to delist wBTC as collateral. This move could reduce Bitcoin's utility on altcoin networks but is positive for Stacks and other Bitcoin sidechains that offer native wrapped Bitcoin alternatives.

BTC ETF Flows

Net BTC ETF flows have been positive since last Friday, with a total of $290.3 million.

Average daily flows were $58.06 million. The median daily inflow stands at $62.1 million.

Volatility

Bitcoin's implied volatility (DVOL) currently stands at 53.11%, placing it in the 41.4th percentile.

Since the liquidation event two weeks ago, DVOL has been on a gradual downtrend.

Basis Spread

The basis spread, or the price of a futures contract over its spot price, is positive across all maturities, but the short end of the curve has fallen to almost zero in the last week.

The futures curve is in an archetypical normal contango with front month (August 30th) APR lower than all other maturities. The basis rises in the back months (September 27th & December 27th) and then flattens out there after. This yield curve is positively sloped. For Bitcoin this is not a bullish curve in the short term.

Bullish Bitcoin futures curves are typically special contangos (Figure 6) where front month has the highest APR, and APR falls every maturity thereafter, but APR is positive along the whole curve.

Macro

The macro environment has been calm following the Nikkei liquidation event two weeks ago. However, volatility has since started to trend upward again after reaching a low last week.

S&P 500 implied volatility currently stands at 17.54, while US Treasury implied volatility is at 108.50.

Sincerely,
The Hermetica Team